Weather Update
OM Research Unit: Late November System Analysis Hey everyone, your OMRU team has been digging into the latest GFS model runs for early next week (valid Tuesday 03Z). This is a long-range forecast, and we are simply highlighting potential atmospheric patterns for research purposes. Official NWS guidance should always be your primary source for safety decisions.Here’s a quick breakdown of what the data is suggesting:Synoptic SetupA complex low-pressure system is positioned over the central Rockies, with a surface low (L) clearly visible on the map.We have a deep upper-level trough bringing cold air well into the Plains and Midwest.Potential Precipitation & TemperatureThe 1000-500 mb thickness lines (the red/blue dashed contours) help us estimate the rain/snow line.Winter Weather Potential: The critical 540 decameter (dam) line (approximates the surface freezing point) runs across Kansas and Nebraska, dipping into Colorado. Areas to the north and west of this line are forecast to have snow and potential sleet/freezing rain where indicated by the color shading.Rain/Storms: South and east of the 540 dam line, the atmosphere is warmer (thickness values of 552 dam and higher), supporting liquid precipitation. The main low over the Rockies is pushing moisture northward into this cold air mass.Severe Weather InsightRight now, the GFS data is great for overall pattern recognition but is too coarse to definitively call for "severe weather" in a specific Ozark location.Focus Areas: The regions to the east of the main low in the Great Plains show widespread rain. The key for severe weather (like tornadoes) is the combination of strong instability (CAPE) and significant wind shear, which isn't explicitly detailed on this single GFS chart. We would need higher-resolution models (like the HRRR or NAM) and specific severe weather parameters to assess the true risk.In summary: A strong weather producer is on the way for Tuesday, bringing a mix of winter weather to the northern tier and rain to the Ozarks region. We’ll keep an eye on model trends over the coming days!